Step one: Don't define step two yet

Where will it go next? (Image by footiechic)

I’ve had the privilege of helping many people to prepare for sensitive or challenging conversations.

We talk about how to set the tone, how to make sense of the situation to potentially create a win-win, and how to stand your ground.

Then they ask, “Well, then what will she say? And what will I say next?” But we’re not writing a script. We’re getting ready for an interaction that can go virtually anywhere from its starting point.

It’s certainly understandable that when things are uncomfortable or unknown, we might try to create a playbook of the exact sequence of events or the exact dialogue that will achieve our desired result.

However, the simplicity of turn-by-turn directions has little value when real life is unpredictable. It’s better to have a map. Then, you have information that will allow you to make adjustments to the plan.

Many of us, however, have found ourselves in a dire situation without a map. We’re struggling to reopen schools or businesses; we’re trying to figure out how to know when it’s okay to visit grandchildren or grandparents. There is no way to predict what will happen next, and useful information is simultaneously scarce and overabundant.

In the midst of this, we are desperate for normalcy, predictability, and certainty. If none is forthcoming, some of us try to manufacture it. But the peace of mind this creates is an illusion.

In the Atlanta suburbs, for instance, some parents are protesting the reopening plan of Cobb County School District. They want hard dates for when schools will reopen for in-person learning. However, the administrators in Cobb County have decided that the date will be determined in response to local public health conditions.

The administrators’ choice is reasonable; setting a date does not create safe conditions for reopening schools. The date is arbitrary. If the superintendent wants to protect the lives of his students and staff, choosing the date happens after the safe conditions are present.

Some parents argue that school should reopen now, regardless of the public health situation in their community. Let’s leave that aside for now. Even if parents accept that the reopening date will be dependent on external circumstances, it’s reasonable for them to want to know: What are the metrics we’re using to determine the opening date? Is it the positivity rate of new coronavirus tests? The number of new tests? The degree of community spread of COVID? The hospitalization rates? What are the benchmarks that we’re looking for?

The Cobb County School District doesn’t have answers. And I have to say, I find this reasonable as well. I’m in a similar place with my own planning. I’ve seen articles that mention that we can shoot for test positivity rates below 5%, but what does that mean for my school and my community? Is that the current positivity rate or the cumulative one? How do we know that there is adequate testing and contact tracing?

I’m not an epidemiologist or a data scientist, and presumably neither are the local superintendents. Like many leaders thrust into an unfamiliar situation, we are watching and waiting. Our first mandate has always been to keep our people safe. We’re not going to move until the coast is clear. And even then, we might wait for someone more impatient to go first and assess accordingly.

Defining benchmarks can be a helpful way to motivate yourself toward a goal. “By September 10, I will be able to run four miles without stopping!” But that only works if you control the variables. You’ll be following through on your own training plan, course-correcting based on your own choices.

A school district can certainly reopen on a particular date, but it only controls the conditions within its buildings and none of the circumstances outside. A district, as an entity, might not even be able to do much to control or even influence the actions of its students and staff. Setting a date doesn’t determine a particular outcome, only a particular action — an action that might garner far more criticism than the choice to not set a date if the outcome turns out to be less than favorable.

Leaders must often plan and prepare for the unknown. However, realistically, they might not have all of the resources they need to do so effectively. The best they can do is start where they are, with what they have, and go from there. It would be great to have a comprehensive, multi-step plan; in the meantime, they can work toward that, taking just one step at a time, making the best choices they can given the situation. It’s all we can do sometimes.